The root cause was a Linux kernel bug (a netfilter xtables typo), not a Tailscale bug, it was fixed upstream in kernels 6.11.6 and 6.6.59, and distros shipped the fix (NixOS, Arch 6.11.4-arch2-1, Ubuntu, Fedora). Upgrade your kernel to a fixed release. As a workaround on an affected kernel, force nftables mode: set TSDEBUGFIREWALL_MODE=nftables in the tailscaled environment (e.g. /etc/default/tailscaled) and restart tailscaled, multiple reporters confirmed exit nodes worked again with this.
Source: https://github.com/tailscale/tailscale/issues/13863
Source: https://github.com/tailscale/tailscale/issues/13863