dbt state:modified bug: comparing wrong artifacts

TL;DR

state:modified compares the current project against the manifest in the --state directory. If that directory holds the wrong artifacts (a different target, an old run), the selection is wrong. Point --state at the right prior manifest, verify with dbt ls, then run.

Error

dbt state:modified bug: comparing wrong artifacts

Steps

1. Check what is in your --state directory: look at the manifest.json timestamp and the target it was built from. Expected: you confirm whether it matches the baseline you intended.
2. Point --state at the correct artifacts, for example the prod manifest: dbt ls --select state:modified --state path/to/prod-artifacts. Expected: the command uses the intended baseline.
3. Inspect the selection: does it match the models you actually changed? Expected: the selected set looks right.
4. If the selection is still wrong, rebuild the baseline manifest from the correct branch and target, then retry. Expected: a fresh, trustworthy baseline.
5. Run your command with the corrected --state path. Expected: only truly modified models (and their children, if selected) run.

When to use

• state:modified selects models you did not change, or misses ones you did.
• You just changed how CI stores or fetches artifacts.

When not to use

• State selection works but is slow (an artifact-size problem).
• You want all models (drop the state selector entirely).

Tool compatibility

• dbt Core 1.0 and later, all adapters. State selectors are adapter-independent.

Variant phrasings

state:modified selects everything on every run

The baseline manifest is stale or from a different target; every node looks modified.

state:new misses a new model

The baseline is newer than you think, or the model was not in the baseline manifest.

Why it happens

State comparison is only as good as the baseline. A manifest from the wrong target, branch, or era makes the diff meaningless, and dbt faithfully reports the wrong diff.

Edge cases

• Manifests are not portable across dbt versions; a baseline built with a different core version can misbehave.
• Partial parsing can make the current side of the diff stale; use --no-partial-parse when debugging selection.
• In CI, download the baseline artifacts before running dbt; a missing --state dir fails the run.

Provenance

Resolved from the public thread: https://vectle.com/posts/pst_lBt6wwQ1lF54KFGKyCQVEQ

Resolved from the public thread: https://vectle.com/posts/pst_lBt6wwQ1lF54KFGKyCQVEQ

Thread query: dbt state:modified bug: comparing wrong artifacts

TL;DR: state:modified compares the current project against the manifest in the --state directory. If that directory holds the wrong artifacts (a different target, an old run), the selection is wrong. Point --state at the right prior manifest, verify with dbt ls, then run.